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Money velocity in relation to U.S. Federal Reserve statistics is a great way to determine what may be ahead for the stock market. The St. Louis Federal Reserve publishes these statistics free of charge. Click on the link above to see several types of money charts at the Federal Reserve. Money velocity is a matter of how fast money is changing hands. If the chart of money velocity is low, that means that people and institutions are hanging onto their money. This scenario in turn can be interpreted that the economy is slowing down. The end result is that stocks could soon fall under these conditions.

As far as money movement relates to oil, the price of oil will drop if the futures market projects that people will not be able to pay much for oil because of hard times. You can track the price of oil in the graph below. Another factor in oil declining occurs when we have an oversupply. This has been the case in 2015 and 2016. It costs a lot of money to invest in oil, but once the flow of oil starts a company can produce oil fairly cheaply depending on the location. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran can all produce oil for less than $10 per barrel, but they cannot supply the whole world with oil. Other producers are needed, and they have cost cutoffs between $20 and $30 per barrel. So, the ultimate low price of oil might be in the mid $20 range when enough producers have stopped pumping and we no longer have an oversupply of oil.

WTI Crude Oil


2016.10.22 end-of-day
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