This page will be a continuation of the Stock Table 1 page because it has become a long one, and I need to make this additional page for trading comments.
Currently, I am able to trade both up markets and down markets. TZA, the small cap bear ETF, is my best choice for playing market
downturns. UDOW, the triple Dow ETF, is a good choice to buy when stocks are rising.
As of December 21, 2012, I have made $1,861 during nine months of paper trading this portfolio when the initial investment was only $2,000. The goal is to make one million dollars in 16 years by making 50% or more each year on trading. If I later discover that I cannot make 50% every year, I will modify the gain table with a new projected yearly gain.
As December 2012 closed, Congress and the President seemed to be deadlocked more than ever concerning the national budget. Therefore, the stock market started going down. I sold UDOW for a small profit and bought the small cap bear stock, TZA, in its place since is does well in market downtrends. It is unfortunate that the stock market is being ruined during the best time of the year because of government squabbling.
TZA was later sold for a small loss because Congress resolved its fiscal cliff problem sooner than I expected. NUGT was also sold at a greater loss because there has been a paradigm shift against gold miners. As of January 25, 2013, the price of gold has been capped at around $1600 per ounce, and it does not look like it is going up anytime soon. This factor is weighing down gold miners as well as reports that lower grade gold is being mined now. Thus, gold miners will get less money for more work in mining the gold. It will be a good idea to stay away from gold and gold mining stocks in the future.
During a massive stock market downturn in the last week of February 2013, XIV was purchased on paper for $18.55 since I was positive this inverse volatility ETF would certainly get back to over $20 per share quickly. I wanted to invest my own money here, but I had some long-term stocks that I did not want to sell at the time, and I already had a significant XIV position.
The above XIV position was sold in April at $23.01 per share for a profit of $473.
On June 21, 2013, the stock market presented some outstanding bargains because the Dow had dropped more than 500 points the previous two days. The market had been spooked by Bernanke talking about tapering QE. However, the economy was not showing any sign of weakness, and I knew stocks were still worth buying. So, with the two Cash positions, I bought IBB, a drug company ETF, and XIV, which is the inverse volatility index ETF. I expect to make at least 10% on each of these stocks in the next month.
On July 11, 2013, I sold both IBB and XIV for a profit. The investment money is now in Cash 1 and Cash 2 positions until we have another stock market pullback. Then, the trading cycle will be done again for another expected profit.
TAN, a solar stock ETF, was bought in January of 2014 with one of the cash positions. Solar stocks did well in 2013, and they should continue their bull run in 2014.
TVIX was bought on January 27, 2014 and sold on February 5, 2014 for a 37% profit in just over a week. TVIX was bought while the stock market was in a downturn, but profits had to be taken quickly because the bull market soon roared back. This is a stock that must only be held for a short time because it has a constant decay toward zero if there is no stock market volatility.
TAN was sold in March of 2014 for a 33% profit.
SOXL was bought on April 11, 2014 for $80.15 per share, and it was sold on April 22, 2014 for $88.92 per share for a profit of $464. This was only a gain of around 10%, but it was accomplished in less than two weeks. If you do this just once per month, you will be making 120% per year for your money.
October 2014 was a very volatile month, but if you are able to buy low, this is the most dependable way to make money in the stock market. You must sell when you have made a reasonable profit, though. TMF was bought for $69 and sold for $75.77 for a $96 gain. MIDU was bought at $73 and sold at $87 for a profit of $896. So, the volatility of October would have enabled you to make almost $1,000 if you had bought and sold these stocks at these prices.There were two UGAZ trades in 2015. One was a loss and the other was a gain.
TQQQ was sold for more than $1,000 profit on 10-6-2015 for $94.96 per share which was a gain of more than 15% in a short amount of time. I will most likely buy TQQQ every time it drops to $82 per share or less because the economy is strong enough to enable a bounce back toward $100 per share.
UWTI was bought twice in the winter of 2016 while oil was selling at its lowest point. One position made over 14% in less than three weeks. This is why it pays to hold cash for long periods of time until you get ideal setups where the success rate is near 100%. You only need to make four 14% trades each year to gain over 50% for your money.
UWTI was bought for a few days again in April of 2016 for a gain of $1,935.
TQQQ was bought for a couple weeks in the summer of 2016 for a gain of $421.
DGAZ and UGAZ were outstanding winning trades during the winter and spring of 2017. Over $20,000 was made during the trades. This will also become a seasonal event every year due to the high rate of success. TMF, the 3x long-term bond ETF, was bought after that for a 5% gain over a short amount of time.
May of 2017 was my best month ever in the five years that I have been trading this portfolio on paper. Bitcoin was on fire because Japan had accepted it is a legal form of money. I was also trading Bitcoin with the ETF known as GBTC. They actually buy shares of Bitcoin, but their stock price is usually at a premium of the actual Bitcoin price. Their ETF is set up to mirror the gold ETF known as GLD where its price is usually around 10% of the price of gold. However, GBTC almost always trades at around 20% of the price of Bitcoin because the trading is so popular.
So, believe it or not, I doubled the size of the Fibonacci-Stocks.com portfolio in less than two weeks in May from the 16th to the 25th. I bought shares of GBTC at $202 in the middle of May and sold them for $495 on May 25. This was also an actual successful trade in my 401K account although it was a smaller amount of money since my regular portfolio is highly diversified with only a fraction of my money devoted to trading. I also recommend that no more than 20% of your portfolio should be spent on trading in case something goes wrong. Currently, the Bitcoin trade is dead in October of 2017 because foreign governments have started to crack down on Bitcoin operations because some operators are corrupting the process. So, I will not trade Bitcoin again until I hear news that foreign governments are giving it the green light once more. I am just very happy that I was in the right place at the right time to make super gains in GBTC in 2017, though.
In August and September of 2017, I made a successful trade with UGAZ, the natural gas 3x bull ETF. I bought at $12.20 and sold at $13.81 for a small gain, but you can make a lot of money annually if you make 10% gains in several months of the year. UGAZ and DGAZ (natural gas 3x bear) will be very profitable trades in the fall and winter if you pay attention to natural gas news and fundamentals. You must exit the trades as soon as you have a reasonable profit, though, because natural gas prices are constantly changing. The best prediction for price direction that I have found is the Henry Hub natural gas futures monthly table. If future monthly prices are going down, that is bearish, and you should briefly buy DGAZ. Take your profit as soon as possible because the bulls will certainly take over again in just days or weeks at the most.
We made a lot of money in bitcoin, GBTC, in the fall of 2017. However, the easy money has already been made in bitcoin. So, in the first couple of months in 2018, I was able to make successful trades in DGAZ and SDOW. It will get harder to make money on trades if the stock market stays in a fairly narrow trading range, but we have done well so far.
There will be a lot of months when it is too risky to trade because of the narrow trading range mentioned above as well as stock market unpredictability. You only need a few months each year to be successful with this system. Such was the case in 2018. I did not make any more successful trades until the end of 2018. I was able to make money then with SQQQ (short Nasdaq) on a downswing, and I was successful with UDOW (long Dow) on a bullish uptrend.
In spite of three losses, we are up around 171 times for our money over the past 80 months. We have grown this account to $342,883 from the initial investment of $2,000. That is a profit of $340,883. So, we are on track for making one million dollars in 16 years or less through short term trading starting with a small amount of money.